🌊 Great news! Ocean currents won’t shut down soon
Hey, folks! Thanks for subscribing to Hypertextual! The ocean’s climate engine is slowing down—should we panic?
For years, scientists have warned that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)—a vast system of ocean currents that helps regulate the global climate—could halt as the planet warms. If that happened, Europe would face much colder winters, storms would intensify, and weather patterns worldwide would go wild. But a new study brings a bit of good news: while AMOC is weakening, it’s unlikely to collapse entirely before the end of the century.
So, what exactly is AMOC, and why should we care about its fate? Imagine a giant conveyor belt in the Atlantic Ocean. Warm water flows north near the surface, cools down, sinks, and travels back south in deep layers. This cycle moves heat and nutrients across the planet, shaping weather and climate. If it ever shut down completely, Europe would freeze, sea levels would rise even faster, and tropical rainfall patterns would shift, bringing droughts to some regions and floods to others.
Researchers tested extreme climate scenarios, such as quadrupling atmospheric CO₂ and flooding the Atlantic with meltwater from ice sheets. The result? AMOC slowed down but didn’t fail. The reason it didn’t collapse? Powerful winds over the Southern Ocean (aka the Antarctic Ocean) help drive deep water towards the surface, balancing out the sinking cold waters in the North Atlantic.
And now, I can almost hear you asking: what about the Gulf Stream? Spoiler alert—it’ll most likely be fine too.
Much of the Atlantic’s heat transfer happens due to the Gulf Stream, a powerful surface current carrying warm water northward from the Caribbean. The Gulf Stream runs on wind power, but its northern extension, the North Atlantic Current, depends on the AMOC to stay warm.
Some fear the Gulf Stream could collapse, but the IPCC says that won’t happen. Even if the AMOC shuts down, the Gulf Stream will only slow, not stop. But that still comes with problems: rising sea levels along the US coast, less rain in some regions, heavier downpours in others, and stronger storms in the North Atlantic.
This study throws cold water on the idea of an imminent AMOC collapse—but “unlikely” doesn’t mean “impossible.” A weaker AMOC could still mess with global weather in ways we won’t like. So, what can we do? It’s simple: cut emissions now or risk pushing the climate past the point of no return.
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Elia Kabanov is a science writer covering the past, present and future of technology (@metkere)
Illustration: Elia Kabanov feat. MidJourney. AMOC scheme: Jonathan Baker (Met Office) and co-authors.